Forex News

Copper futures held steady at around $4.14 per pound on Thursday, pausing their recent upward movement as the dollar rebounded. The dollar's strength was fueled by expectations that Trump’s policies could fuel inflation, which in turn may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut borrowing costs. In China, the People's Bank of China kept key lending rates unchanged this week, as expected, offering no new signals that could impact demand in the world’s largest copper consumer. Meanwhile, copper spot treatment and refining charges in China showed signs of improvement as smelters scaled back production following several years of rapid expansion. Copper inventories in the country have also been declining, currently sitting below August levels with seven days' worth of supply readily available.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 Index decreased 282 points or 0.74 percent on Thursday. Losses were driven by IHI (-3.83%), Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding (-3.59%) and East Japan Railway (-3.52%). Biggest rises came from Tokyo Gas (4.96%), M3 (4.40%) and Taiheiyo Cement (4.16%).

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note steadied around 4.4% on Thursday, supported by expectations that Trump’s policies could fuel inflation and potentially limit the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts. Investors are now closely watching Trump’s potential cabinet nominees to assess whether the incoming administration will follow through on its campaign promises. Meanwhile, on the monetary policy front, Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook offered mixed signals about the inflation outlook and the future path for rate cuts in separate statements on Wednesday. Looking ahead, investors are focused on upcoming data, including initial jobless claims and existing home sales, as well as further central bank commentary, to gauge the economic and policy direction.

The consumer confidence indicator in the Netherlands dropped to -25 in November 2024, down from -22 the previous month, and remains well below its twenty-year average of -10. Consumers became more pessimistic about the general economic situation, both for the past 12 months (-51 vs. -46 in October) and the next 12 months (-34 vs. -28). Views on household financial situations were also more negative for the past 12 months (-11 vs. -9), and less optimistic for the upcoming 12 months (1 vs. 3). Meanwhile, willingness to buy remained unchanged at -12, as did perceptions of the timing for making large purchases (-28).

The Netherland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 3.7% in October 2024, unchanged from the previous two months. The number of unemployed individuals fell by 1 thousand to 376 thousand, while employment decreased by 6 thousand to 9.771 million. The labor force participation rate went down to 75.6% from 75.8% in the prior period. Meanwhile, there were 179 thousand current recipients of unemployment benefits during the period, up by 3.9% compared to September. In October 2023, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate was at 3.6%

Bitcoin and Ether are on the rise. Bitcoin is leading the charge with a 3.79% gain.

Passenger car registrations in the European Union rose by 1.1% year-on-year to a four-month high of 866,397 units in October 2024, recovering from a 6.1% drop in September. This marked the first increase in passenger car registrations in three months, with positive results in two of the region’s four major markets. Spain led with a strong 7.2% growth, while Germany rebounded by 6.0% after three months of declines. Meanwhile, declines were recorded in France (-11.1%) and Italy (-9.1%). For battery electric vehicles (BEVs), registrations increased by 2.4% to 124,907 units, with their market share holding steady at 14.4%. For the first ten months of 2024, overall car registrations rose by 0.7% year-on-year to 8.9 million units. However, the market share for new battery-electric cars declined to 13.2% from 14% the previous year, largely impacted by a 26.6% plunge in Germany.

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index inched 0.2% higher at 12,765 on Thursday. New Zealand's Treasury said on Thursday it would likely revise down its economic and fiscal forecasts due to a prolonged slowdown in productivity. This prompted investors to increasingly factor in the possibility of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand implementing a more aggressive 75bps cut to its 4.75% cash rate at its policy meeting next week, with a 50bps reduction already fully priced in. On the corporate front, shares of Infratil rose 0.9% after the company revealed its plan to offer six-year unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed-rate infrastructure bonds. Additionally, banks Westpac and ANZ gained 1.2% and 2.9%, respectively.

Malaysian palm oil futures plunged near 3.0% to below MYR 4,700 per tonne, slipping for the second session to a 3-week low amid mounting concerns over sluggish exports. Cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri noted Malaysia's palm oil shipments from Nov. 1–20 shrank 1.38% from the same period in Oct. Meanwhile, Malaysia's move to raise its Dec. export tax on crude palm oil to 10% and increase the indicative price to MYR 4,471.39 could further weigh on foreign demand. Adding to the bearish mood, US soybean futures slumped, on expectations of a plentiful South American soy harvest this year and uncertainty over demand for soy-based biodiesel fuel. Further, worries escalated surrounding demand from major buyers like India and China. As winter nears, consumers in these countries often shift to alternative edible oils better suited for cold weather. Partially cushioning the fall were remarks from Malaysian Palm Oil Board that prices would remain supported by tight supply and higher domestic consumption.

The Shanghai Composite dropped 0.2% to around 3,360, and the Shenzhen Component lost 0.15% to 10,810 on Thursday, as mainland stocks reversed a two-day rally amid economic uncertainties in China and concerns over Trump’s imminent return to the White House. China’s central bank kept key lending rates unchanged this week, as expected, but investors remain hopeful that Beijing will introduce additional stimulus measures to support economic growth. Meanwhile, the prospect of higher tariffs on Chinese goods under the upcoming Trump administration has added to concerns about the country’s economic outlook. Notable losses were seen among major firms, including China Greatwall (-0.8%), Guangdong Topstar (-3.2%), Siasun Robot (-4.1%), Citic Securities (-0.8%), and Sinodata (-6.4%).

The New Zealand dollar held its recent decline to around $0.587 on Thursday as investors anticipated a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at its policy meeting next week. Currently, markets are implying a 26% chance of a 75bps rate cut to the 4.75% cash rate, while a 50bps reduction is already fully priced in. This shift in expectations followed a downbeat economic outlook from New Zealand Treasury, which cautioned that the anticipated economic recovery could be delayed. Externally, the Kiwi faced added pressure from a rebound in the US dollar amid speculation that the Federal Reserve may hold off on cutting interest rates in December.

Indonesia's current account deficit widened to USD 2.15 billion in Q3 of 2024 from USD 1.16 billion in the same period of 2023, pointing to the sixth consecutive quarter of shortfall while representing 0.6% of the country's GDP. The services account deficit rose to USD 4.15 billion from USD 3.90 billion a year earlier while the primary income shortfall edged up to USD 8.86 billion from  USD 8.67 billion a year ago. Simultaneously, the trade surplus narrowed to USD 9.29 billion from USD 10.16 billion a year before, amid a faster rise in imports due to strengthened domestic demand. In the meantime, the secondary income surplus increased to USD 1.58 billion from the prior USD 1.25 billion, supported by remittance revenue. In 2023, the current account deficit stood at USD 2.15 billion, a sharp reversal from a surplus of USD 13.22 billion in the preceding year. The central bank maintained its current account deficit forecast at around 0.1%-0.9% of GDP range for this year.

The Japanese yen rose to around 155 per dollar on Thursday, recovering some ground after losses in the previous session. However, uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s future interest rate hikes continued to weigh on the currency. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested on Monday that any rate hikes would be gradual, depending on economic conditions, but he provided no specific timeline for when such hikes might occur. Meanwhile, recent verbal warnings from Japanese authorities appeared less effective in curbing market concerns, with traders eyeing the 160 level as a potential trigger for further government intervention. Investors are now awaiting Japan's October inflation data, due for release on Friday, to help shape the economic outlook. Meanwhile, the yen remains under pressure from the US dollar, bolstered by expectations that Trump’s policies could reignite inflation and limit future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The Australian dollar rose back above $0.65 on Thursday, recovering from losses in the previous session, driven by a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The minutes from the RBA’s November meeting revealed that the central bank remains cautious of inflationary pressures, noting that monetary policy should stay restrictive until inflation is on a clear path to its target. However, the RBA emphasized that future policy adjustments will depend on incoming economic data. Earlier in the week, the Aussie came under pressure from the US dollar as rising tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The US dollar also continued to be supported by expectations that Trump’s policies could reignite inflation, potentially limiting future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Hong Kong's shares increased 37 points or 0.2% to 19,735 on Thursday, marking the second session of gains amid strength mainly from the consumer sector. Investors considered remarks from Fed Boston President Susan Collins, who stated that additional interest-rate cuts are necessary, but policymakers should move neither too quickly nor too slowly. At the same time, traders monitored Trump’s administration picks, particularly his choice for the Treasury secretary role. In China, stock markets were muted after the PBoC Wednesday held its key lending rates steady at record lows to help the economy, ahead of December's Central Economic Work forum and the upcoming Politburo meeting. Gains were tempered by caution ahead of Hong Kong's October inflation data, due later today. In September, the reading fell to a three-month low of 2.2%, below forecasts of 2.4%. Some of the early top performers were Hansoh Pharmaceutical (4.7%), Pop Mart Intl. (4.3%), Prada Spa (4.0%), and Geely Auto (2.4%).

Gold extended its recent gains to above $2,650 per ounce on Thursday, rising for the fourth consecutive session, as investors sought safety in the metal as geopolitical uncertainty intensified with escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. On Wednesday, Ukraine launched Western-supplied long-range weapons for the second time, a day after President Putin approved an updated nuclear doctrine expanding the conditions for using nuclear weapons. At the same time, the US vetoed a UN resolution for a Gaza ceasefire, reigniting concerns over the ongoing Middle East conflict. On the monetary policy front, markets continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, closely watching Fedspeak for new trading signals. A slight majority of the market still expects a 25bps rate cut in December, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold.

The dollar index held above 106.5 on Thursday after rebounding in the previous session, underpinned by expectations that Trump’s policies could fuel inflation, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts. Investors are now focusing on Trump’s potential cabinet nominees to assess whether the incoming administration will follow through on its campaign promises. On the monetary policy front, conflicting signals emerged from Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook, who offered divergent views on inflation and the potential for further easing in separate statements on Wednesday. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting key data, including initial jobless claims and existing home sales, as well as more commentary from the central bank. The dollar also benefited from renewed safe-haven demand, fueled by rising tensions between Russia and the West. As a result, the dollar strengthened across the board, with the euro, kiwi, and yen seeing the most significant declines.

Today's Asia currencies market is characterized by modest daily movements, with Cambodian Riel standing out as the frontrunner with a 0.31% increase.

The benchmark KOSPI rose 0.2% to around 2,488 points on Thursday, rising for a fourth consecutive session, led by gains in chip stocks following strong earnings from US chipmaker Nvidia. However, optimism was tempered as the results still showed a slowdown compared to the previous three quarters and fell short of high investor expectations. Index heavyweight Samsung Electronics rose 0.4%, while its rival and Nvidia supplier, SK Hynix, climbed 0.6%. Notable gains were also seen among healthcare stocks, with Samsung Biologics surging 1.1% and Celltrion soaring 2.4%, after announcing a KRW 100 billion share buyback to enhance shareholder value. Domestically, South Korea's exports rose 5.8% year-on-year during the first 20 days of November. Investors are now awaiting the Bank of Korea's rate decision, with expectations for it to remain at 3.25%.

WTI crude oil futures rose above $69 per barrel on Thursday, as heightened geopolitical risks slightly outweighed concerns over growing US crude supplies. On Wednesday, Ukraine launched Western-supplied long-range weapons for the second time, a day after President Putin approved an updated nuclear doctrine that expands the conditions for using nuclear weapons. At the same time, the US vetoed a UN resolution for a Gaza ceasefire, reigniting fears of supply disruptions amid Middle East tensions. However, gains were tempered by signs of ample supply in the market. EIA data revealed that US crude oil inventories increased for the third consecutive week, rising 0.5 million barrels last week, exceeding the anticipated 0.4 million-barrel build. Additionally, gasoline stocks rose by 2.1 million barrels, surpassing forecasts of a 1.6 million-barrel increase.