Forex News

The consumer confidence indicator in the Czech Republic fell to 97.7 in April 2025 from a three-month high of 98.8 in the previous month. The number of respondents expecting the overall economic situation in the Czech Republic to deteriorate over the next twelve months increased. Moreover, the share of households expecting their financial situation to worsen over the next year accelerated, while the proportion of consumers who believe that the current period is not conducive to making large purchases fell for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, the assessments of their current financial situation as worse than in the previous twelve months remained unchanged.

The business confidence indicator in the Czech Republic dropped by 3.1 points to 96.5 in April 2025, marking its lowest level in six months. Sentiment weakened in the industry (90.3 vs 94.8 in March), trade (100.2 vs 102.2), and selected services (100.3 vs 102.3). Meanwhile, confidence in the construction sector increased (116.4 vs 115.8).

France’s consumer confidence indicator held steady at 92 in April 2025, matching March’s figure and slightly exceeding expectations of 91, though still below the long-term average of 100. Sentiment around personal finances remained unchanged, with the assessment of past financial situations steady at -20 and expectations staying weak at -11. Intentions to make major purchases improved slightly (-23 vs. -26), while households’ willingness to save dipped (35 vs. 39). However, consumers remained deeply pessimistic about living standards, both past (-67 vs. -69) and future (-53 vs. -50). Unemployment concerns increased (51 vs. 47), and while inflation expectations eased (-37 vs. -41), perceptions of past consumer prices worsened (-13 vs. -8).

AXA increased to an 8-year high of 40.51 EUR. Over the past 4 weeks, AXA gained 2.22%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 18.13%.

The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.49% to close at 35,039 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.32% to 2,593 on Thursday, with Japanese shares rising for the second straight session and tracking Wall Street higher. The rally followed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who signaled a softer stance on Chinese tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that the U.S. and China have a chance to reach a “big deal” on trade. Meanwhile, the U.S. reportedly informed Japan’s trade delegation that Tokyo would not receive special treatment under Washington’s current tariff regime, despite Japan’s calls for a policy review. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 0.5% in its meeting next week. Tech and consumer stocks led the gains, with notable advances from Tokyo Electron (+3.7%), Advantest (+3.2%), SoftBank Group (+3.2%), Nintendo (+5.6%), and Toyota Motor (+2.9%).

Silver fell nearly 1% to around $33.3 per ounce on Thursday in a likely technical correction after surging more than 3% in the previous session to a three-week high. The white metal continued to diverge from gold, reflecting its hybrid nature as both a precious and industrial metal—making it more sensitive to shifts in macroeconomic sentiment and trade developments. Recent market moves were shaped by evolving U.S.-China trade signals. While the Trump administration is reportedly considering tariff cuts pending talks with Beijing, China has conditioned its participation on a pause in U.S. threats. Still, optimism cooled after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that no unilateral cuts have been proposed and formal talks have not yet begun.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged the Bank of Japan to maintain flexibility and a data-driven approach when considering further interest rate hikes, as rising U.S. tariffs add pressure and uncertainty to the economy. “In times of heightened uncertainty, flexibility and data dependence become paramount,” said Nada Choueiri, the IMF’s Japan mission chief, in a Wednesday interview. She emphasized the need for clear communication from the central bank regarding how it interprets data. The warning follows the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, which downgraded Japan’s 2025 growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 0.6%, citing U.S. trade challenges. Of the downgrade, 0.28 points stem directly from tariffs, particularly those targeting cars and auto parts—sectors that represent about 40% of Japan’s exports to the U.S. While Tokyo currently has a 90-day pause from 24% reciprocal tariffs, a baseline 10% duty and more 25% levies on cars, steel, and aluminum remain in place.

Copper futures dipped to around $4.83 per pound on Thursday, retreating from three-week highs as investors reassessed the outlook for global trade. The pullback came as enthusiasm over a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions faded. While the Trump administration is reportedly considering tariff reductions pending talks with Beijing, China has indicated it would only engage if Washington halts further threats. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also dampened optimism, clarifying that no unilateral tariff cuts have been proposed and that formal negotiations have yet to begin. Adding to the uncertainty, speculation that copper could be targeted in future trade measures has stirred concerns, but also contributed to the recent price surge as traders positioned for potential supply disruptions.

China today launched its first batch of special sovereign bonds for 2025, aiming to cushion the economy against escalating trade tensions with the U.S. The Ministry of Finance plans to raise CNY 286 billion through a three-part issuance to fund a fiscal package approved in March. Unlike regular sovereign debt, special bonds are earmarked for specific purposes and do not count toward China’s record-high 4% fiscal deficit target. The issuance includes CNY 165 billion in five-year bonds to inject capital into struggling state-owned banks, which are facing shrinking profit margins. China also plans to issue CNY 50 billion in 20-year bonds and CNY 71 billion yuan in 30-year bonds. This is part of a broader plan to sell CNY 500 billion of such bonds by June 4, and CNY 1.3 trillion in ultra-long special sovereign notes through October. The move underscores Beijing’s push to boost spending and defend its 5% growth target amid looming 145% U.S. tariffs.

The manufacturing confidence indicator in Denmark dropped to 103.6 in April 2025 from 107.2 in the previous month. This marked the lowest reading in manufacturing confidence since August 2024, primarily driven by a sharp deterioration in employment expectations, which turned negative (-1 vs 15 in March). Additionally, household sentiment toward production weakened slightly (15 vs. 16), suggesting a more cautious outlook.

Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus widened to SAR 30.6 billion in February 2025, up from SAR 29.4 billion in the same month last year. It marked the largest trade surplus since April 2024, as exports fell less than imports. Exports dropped 2.6% yoy to a three-month low of SAR 93.7 billion, due to a 7.9% decline in oil exports, which accounted for 72.1% of total exports. Meanwhile, non-oil exports grew by 14.3%. China remained the top destination for Saudi exports, representing 16.2% of the total, followed by South Korea (10.1%) and the UAE (9.8%). Meanwhile, imports shrank by 5.6% to a 14-month low of SAR 63.2 billion, weighed by a decline in purchases of machinery, electrical equipment, and parts (-0.7%), which constituted 23.5% of total imports. By contrast, transportation equipment and parts imports surged by 24.3%, which represented 15.4% of total imports. Among the major suppliers, China also kept the largest share of imports at 24.1%, followed by the US (7.3%) and India (6.7%).

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to close at 12,018 on Thursday, marking its second straight session of gains. The index tracked back-to-back rallies on Wall Street, driven by hopes for some cooling in the U.S.-China trade war as the Trump administration is considering slashing tariffs on Chinese imports pending talks with Beijing. President Trump also pledge not to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Locally, sentiment was further boosted by positive economic data. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey showed consumer confidence rose to a four-month high in April (98.3 vs 93.2 in March), shoring up the upward trend that was starting to look wobbly. Utility stocks were among the top performers, with gains led by Meridian Energy (2.5%), Mercury NZ (1.8%), and Manawa Energy (5.1%). Transport and logistics shares also advanced, including Mainfreight (3.5%), Port of Tauranga (1.8%), and Freightways (0.3%).

European equity markets were set for a muted open on Thursday, with futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 hovering near the flatline, as momentum from the recent rally stalled. Investors remain cautious as hopes for a U.S.-China trade breakthrough were tempered by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who clarified that President Trump has not proposed any unilateral tariff reductions and that formal negotiations have yet to begin. In Europe, focus turns to fresh economic data, including Eurozone new car registrations and French consumer confidence. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues, with results expected from major firms such as BNP Paribas, Dassault Systèmes, Eni, Sanofi, and Unilever.

China has released a revised version of its “negative list”, narrowing the number of restricted industries for foreign investors from 117 to 106, to ease market access and boost economic vitality. The list, first introduced in 2018, outlines sectors where foreign investment is limited or prohibited. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Thursday the 2025 update aims to "lower the entry threshold and stimulate market vitality." The move comes as Beijing faces mounting economic pressure from weak domestic demand, a property sector debt crisis, and the threat of new U.S. tariffs. Partial liberalization includes sectors such as TV production, telecom services, online pharmaceutical information, radioactive drug use in healthcare, and forest seed imports. Additionally, local governments are encouraged to expand access in transportation, logistics, freight forwarding, and vehicle rental services.

Finland’s unemployment rate climbed to 10.1% in March 2025 from 9% in the same month of the previous year. This marked the highest jobless rate since May 2024, as the number of unemployed persons jumped by 31 thousand from a year earlier to 285 thousand, while the number of employed persons decreased by 12 thousand to 2.546 million. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for people aged 15-24 fell to 25.3%, which was 0.7 percentage points lower than a year ago. The activity rate for persons aged 15 to 74 declined to 68% from 67.8% a year ago, while the employment rate for persons aged 20 to 64 dropped to 75.6% from 76.1%.

Producer prices in Finland rose by 0.5% year-on-year in March 2025, easing from a 0.7% increase in the previous month. The slowdown was mainly due to weaker price growth in mining and quarrying (0.6% vs 2.5% in February) and manufactured products (0.3% vs 1%), particularly constrained by a decline in oil product prices. On the other hand, costs rebounded sharply for electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning (1.3% vs -3.9%), while prices also rose more rapidly for water supply (6% vs 2.7%). On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 0.2%, marking the first decline since last October, following a flat reading in the previous month. The drop was driven by lower prices for petroleum products and paper and paper products.

Top currency gainers are Japanese Yen (0.41%), Swiss Franc (0.27%), Euro (0.16%) and British Pound (0.11%). Biggest losers are Dollar Index (-0.13%).

Malaysian palm oil futures fell below MYR 4,030 per tonne, snapping a two-day rebound amid expectations of rising output in the coming months as plantation activity picks up. Traders also remained cautious ahead of the July expiry of the 90-day U.S. tariff suspension, which could reignite market pressure. Despite the decline, prices are still up about 1% so far this week, marking the first weekly gain in four, supported by export estimates showing Malaysian shipments rose between 11.9% and 18.5% in the first 20 days of April compared to the same period in March, according to cargo surveyors. In the U.S., President Trump reiterated his preference for a trade deal with China that avoids tariffs nearing 145%, helping ease broader market jitters, including in edible oils. Meanwhile, top buyer India resumed palm oil purchases after a five-month standstill, as recent price corrections made the tropical oil more competitive than soyoil, prompting refiners to restock inventories.

Passenger car registrations in the European Union inched down by 0.2% year-on-year to 1.03 million units in March 2025, following a 3.4% drop in February. This marked the third straight month of decline, as the global economic context remains particularly challenging and unpredictable for automakers. The Netherlands led the downturn with a 14.8% drop, followed by France (-14.5%), Belgium (-10.2%), and Germany (-3.9%). In the battery electric vehicle (BEV) segment, registrations rose by 17.1%, supported by a significant increase in Germany (35.5%). For Q1 of 2025, overall car registrations declined by 1.9% year-on-year. However, new battery-electric car sales grew by 23.9%, reaching 412,997 units and capturing 15.2% of the total EU market share. Three of the four largest markets in the EU - Germany (38.9%), Belgium (29.9%), and the Netherlands (7.9%), which together account for 63% of all BEV registrations, recorded robust gains. In contrast, France saw a decline of 6.6%.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note held steady around 4.36% on Thursday, as investors continued to assess President Donald Trump’s shifting stance on Chinese tariffs. The Trump administration is reportedly considering lowering tariffs on Chinese imports pending talks with Beijing, while China signaled openness to trade talks on the condition that Washington refrains from further threats. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dampened early optimism, clarifying that no formal talks have begun and no unilateral tariff cuts have been proposed. Separately, President Trump’s assurance earlier this week that he does not intend to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell helped ease concerns over political interference in monetary policy, offering some support to bond markets.