Forex News

Iron ore futures climbed above $102 per tonne in mid-March, hitting a two-week high on expectations of additional stimulus measures from China, the world’s top consumer of the metal. Optimism grew as top government officials in Beijing prepared to hold a press conference on Monday to discuss policies aimed at boosting consumption. Chinese steelmakers also ramped up production during the peak construction season, driving hot metal output up to 2.31 million tons and further lifting iron ore demand. However, the Chinese government reaffirmed its commitment to limiting crude steel production due to concerns of overcapacity among blast furnaces and mills, a move expected to reduce steel output by 50 million tons annually. Adding to trade tensions, Vietnam increased dumping levies on Chinese steel, while South Korea, Brazil, and Chile signaled plans to implement similar measures.

The annual inflation rate in Finland fell to 0.5% in February 2025 from 0.7% in the previous two months, marking the lowest reading since December 2020. Prices moderated for alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.48% vs 4.65% in January), health (6.96% vs 6.73%), transport (0.48% vs 1.15%), recreation and culture (1.3% vs 1.7%), restaurants and hotels (1.67% vs 2.37%), and miscellaneous goods and services (0.23% vs 0.63%). At the same time, cost of clothing and footwear dropped by 0.54%, a reversal from a 1.44% gain in January. Conversely, inflation was stable for education (at 2.94%) while prices quickened for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.57% vs 0.85%), furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (1.27% vs 0.07%), and communication (3.34% vs 2.67%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.3%, the most since last October, after a 0.2% increase in January.

Household consumption in the Netherlands rose 1.2% year-on-year in January 2025, slowing from a 1.8% increase in December. The deceleration was mainly due to moderated growth in goods consumption (3.2% vs. -2% in December), as spending on durable consumer goods eased (1.5% vs. 7.6%) and consumption of other goods declined (-0.5% vs. 2.6%), particularly energy and motor fuels. In contrast, spending on food, beverages, and tobacco grew by 3.2%, rebounding from a 2% decline in December. Meanwhile, service consumption edged up to 0.9% from 0.8%, driven by increased spending on transport, communication, hospitality, and recreation. Services account for more than half of total household consumption

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to close at 12,266 on Friday, ending a three-day losing streak, amid strength in consumer non-durables and technology services sectors. In economic news, New Zealand's manufacturing activity in February rose to its highest level since August 2022, driven by higher production and new orders. Meanwhile, annual food inflation ticked up to 2.4% in February from 2.3% in the previous month. Among individual stocks, dairy producer A2 Milk surged 7%, making it the session’s top performer, as dairy prices remained near record highs. Additionally, aged-care providers Ryman Healthcare and Summerset Group gained 2.5% and 1.6%, respectively. Despite Friday’s rebound, the index fell 1.1% for the week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline, amid mounting concerns over an escalating global trade war.

Malaysian palm oil futures were little changed, hovering around MYR 4,540 per tonne after a 1% surge in the previous session, as traders awaited export estimates from cargo surveyors for March 1–15, due over the weekend. In February, industry data showed shipments fell 16.27% to a four-year low of 1 million tons. Market participants also anticipated January-February activity data in key buyer China next week, notably industrial output and retail sales, which could signal future palm oil demand. For the week, futures are down 1.8% so far, reversing prior gains amid concerns over the impact of US tariffs on the global trade. These losses were cushioned, however, by a 35.7% surge in India’s February imports, likely due to stock replenishment and price advantages. On the supply side, Malaysia's inventories fell for the fifth month to 1.51 million tons, the lowest since April 2023, while production dropped 4.16% to a three-year low of 1.19 million tons due to flood-related disruptions.

Top currency losers are Turkish Lira (-0.74%), Japanese Yen (-0.52%), Euro (-0.07%) and British Pound (-0.06%). Gains are led by New Zealand Dollar (0.26%) and Dollar Index (0.14%).

CSI 300 increased to a 13-week high of 4011.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index gained 1.44%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 12.16%.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note stabilized around 4.29% on Friday after slipping in the previous session, as investors assessed trade uncertainties and economic data. On Thursday, President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on all alcoholic products from the European Union, retaliating against the bloc’s 50% tariff on American whiskey and other goods. He also reaffirmed plans to implement reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners, set to take effect on April 2. Meanwhile, recent data showed that US consumer and producer inflation figures for February came in below expectations, reinforcing speculation about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Investors now await consumer sentiment data on Friday for further guidance. Looking ahead, the Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady next week, while markets continue to price in three 25-basis-point rate cuts before the end of the year.

The Australian dollar stabilized around $0.629 on Friday after losing half a percent in the previous session, as investors navigated uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. In the latest developments, Trump reaffirmed his stance on implementing reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners, set to take effect on April 2. The Aussie came under pressure earlier this week after the US imposed 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, affecting about $1 billion worth of Australian exports. Despite trade concerns, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ruled out imposing counter-tariffs on the US. Instead, the government will continue to seek an exemption, warning that retaliatory measures could increase costs for consumers and drive inflation higher. Meanwhile, Australia’s consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 3.6% in March, down from 4.6% in February, signaling waning price pressures in the domestic economy.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.571 on Friday, recouping some losses after falling 0.5% in the previous session on concerns over an escalating global trade war. US President Donald Trump reaffirmed his stance on implementing reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners, set to take effect on April 2. Meanwhile, softer-than-expected inflation figures in the US reinforced bets on further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Domestically, the Kiwi found support from strong manufacturing PMI data. New Zealand's manufacturing activity in February rose to its highest level since August 2022, driven by increased production and new orders. Meanwhile, the country’s annual food inflation inched up to 2.4% in February from 2.3% in the previous month.

The Japanese yen depreciated past 148 per dollar on Friday, reversing gains from the previous session as escalating global trade tensions bolstered the dollar against major currencies. US President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners, set to take effect on April 2. Despite the recent pullback, the yen remains near its strongest levels in over five months, underpinned by expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising interest rates this year. Earlier this week, Japanese firms agreed to significant wage hikes for a third consecutive year, aiming to help workers cope with inflation and address labor shortages. Higher wages are expected to boost consumer spending, fuel inflation, and provide the BOJ with more room for future rate hikes. While the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady next week, policymakers are likely to proceed with further rate increases later this year as inflationary pressures persist.

China Mobile increased to a near 6-year high of 83.60 HKD. Over the past 4 weeks, China Mobile gained 4.51%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 25.09%.

The trade surplus in Peru widened to USD 1,804 million in January 2025 from USD 1,473 million in the same month last year. Exports surged 23.9% year-on-year to USD 6.693 billion, driven by higher sales of traditional products (+24.2%), non-traditional products (+23.4%), and other goods (+27.7%). Meanwhile, imports rose 24.5% to USD 4.890 billion, reflecting increased purchases of consumer goods (+23.6%), raw materials and intermediate goods (+27.4%), and capital goods (+26.7%).

Hong Kong stocks surged 396 points or 1.7% to 23,862 on Friday morning, snapping a six-session losing streak as U.S. futures rebounded following an overnight slump on Wall Street due to President Trump's threat of more tariffs. Meantime, China vowed to take all necessary measures to protect its interests after the latest U.S. levies. Adding to the bullish mood, manufacturing production in Hong Kong grew 1.0% yoy in Q4, bouncing back from the prior 0.1% fall. All sectors advanced, led by consumer and tech. Baidu climbed 2% amid reports of a partnership with Tesla to enhance advanced driving assistance in China. Hong Kong-listed Rusal jumped 5% after reporting a solid surge in annual earnings. However, the Hang Seng is on track for a weekly loss, down around 1.5% so far, pressured by concerns over China’s ability to meet its 2025 GDP growth target of around 5% amid ongoing trade barriers, deflation risks, and worries that Beijing may offer only modest fiscal stimulus to spur consumption.

China Construction Bank increased to a near 6-year high of 6.86 HKD. Over the past 4 weeks, China Construction Bank gained 3.32%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 41.03%.

The dollar index rose to around 104 on Friday, marking its third consecutive session of gains, as escalating global trade tensions pressured the euro and other major currencies. On Thursday, President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on all alcoholic products from the European Union, retaliating against the bloc’s 50% tariff on American whiskey and other US goods. He also reaffirmed his stance on implementing reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners, set to take effect on April 2. Meanwhile, recent data showed that US inflation figures for February came in below expectations, with both consumer and producer price growth slowing. The latest weekly jobless claims also stood at 220K, slightly below estimates but in line with recent trends. Looking ahead, investors are turning their attention to next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady while providing updated economic projections.

Top currency losers are Japanese Yen (-0.28%), Chinese Yuan (-0.03%) and South Korean Won (-0.08%).

The Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% to around 3,370, while the Shenzhen Component gained 1% to 10,845 on Friday, as mainland stocks snapped a two-day losing streak, driven by a rebound in technology and other key sectors. Despite the recovery, both benchmark indexes remain on track to end the week little changed, as Chinese tech and AI-related stocks remain vulnerable to profit-taking after posting year-to-date gains of over 30%. Analysts have also raised concerns about China’s ability to meet its economic targets, as outlined in the recently concluded Two Sessions annual meetings. Meanwhile, global trade tensions continued to weigh on sentiment, with US President Donald Trump reinforcing tariff threats against major trading partners. Notable gainers on Friday included East Money Information (+3%), Wuliangye Yibin (+3.2%), China Galaxy (+6%), Inner Mongolia (+7.5%), and Contemporary Amperex (+2%).

Gold hovered above $2,980 per ounce on Friday, a record high and poised for an over 2% weekly gain, driven by risk aversion and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. In the latest escalation of US President Donald Trump’s multi-front trade war, he warned of a 200% tariff on European wine and other alcoholic beverages after the EU imposed a 50% tax on American whiskey exports. Meanwhile, recent PPI and CPI data signaled easing price pressures in February, giving the Fed more room to cut rates and boosting the appeal of non-yielding gold. Further supporting the metal are strong ETF demand and sustained central bank buying, with China extending its purchases for a fourth consecutive month in February.

Brent crude oil futures rose above $70 per barrel on Friday, trimming an over 1% loss in the previous session, supported by fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil and shipping. Washington targeted Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad and Hong Kong-flagged vessels linked to a shadow fleet concealing Tehran’s crude exports. However, crude remained under pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with the International Energy Agency warning that a supply surplus is set to grow as an escalating trade war weakens demand while OPEC+ increases production. The IEA expects global oil supply to exceed demand by about 600,000 bpd this year, driven by US-led supply growth, while demand is projected to rise by just 1.03 million bpd, 70,000 bpd below last month’s forecast. For the week, oil is heading for an eighth consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since August 2015.