Forex News

GBPUSD increased to a 28-week high of 1.33. Over the past 4 weeks, British Pound US Dollar gained 2.17%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 7.41%.

Top commodity losers are Cheese (-6.43%). Gains are led by Palm Oil (1.17%) and Orange Juice (0.79%).

Top commodity gainers are Titanium (2.06%). Biggest losers are Copper (-1.99%).

Today's Energy commodities market is characterized by modest daily movements, with Methanol standing out as the frontrunner with a 0.56% increase.

Government bonds yields are lower on Friday. Top gainers are Switzerland 10Y (11.15bps).

Top currency losers are Turkish Lira (-1.51%), New Zealand Dollar (-0.74%), South Korean Won (-0.38%) and Dollar Index (-0.13%). Gains are led by Polish Zloty (0.48%), Swiss Franc (0.38%), Euro (0.25%), British Pound (0.13%) and Japanese Yen (0.10%).

Global markets will remain reactive to trade policy from the United States and reactionary measures from China, the EU, Japan, and key trading partners in the ASEAN bloc. Uncertainty on the path of tariffs by the US amid threats of escalation against pledges to strike trade deals continue to drive volatility across all asset classes. Meanwhile, the earnings season for global stocks continues with Alphabet, Tesla, Boeing, Intel, IBM, Merck, and P&G to headline US events. SAP, BNP Paribas, AON, and Sanofi are awaited in Europe. On the economic calendar, flash PMI readings will unveil the initial impact of tariff threats across major economies with results awaited by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, India, and Australia. Durable goods orders and existing home sales will also be eyed in the US, and key confidence gauges are awaited in Germany, France, and the UK, followed by retail sales from the latter. On the monetary policy front, the PBoC is set to hold loan prime rates in China.

Netflix increased to a 7-week high of 1007.00 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Netflix gained 8.22%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 64.83%.

Steel rebar futures in China fell to CNY 3,020 per tonne in April, the lowest in seven months, amid strong supply and an uncertain demand outlook. The trade war between China and the US significantly hampered expectations on manufacturing demand from China, hurting its growth outlook and increasing the risk that the country's property crisis may be far from its bottom. Concerns that property prices may continue to fall due to weak consumer demand maintained pressure on the balance sheet of debt-ridden developers, risking their liquidation and removing a large source of demand for global rebar. Lower demand and increasing trade protectionism had previously driven Beijing to signal capacity cuts in the steel sector, but the latest data showed that mills continued to churn out more steel. Crude steel output in China rose by 3.6% annually to 93 million tons in March.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China sank by 10.8% from the previous year to about $36.9 billion in the first quarter of 2025. The result followed the 27.1% slump in 2024, which was the sharpest decline in foreign direct investment on record with data going back to 2008. The decline continued to reflect weaker foreign confidence into largest projects in the Chinese economy, pressured by risks of a deflationary spiral and the view that the government delayed in its stimulus response, recently magnified by the threat of tariffs from the United States governemnt. Additionally, opaque balance sheets for manufacturers and service providers held the unease of foreign investors. Still, signs of economic support from the government and hints that the CCP may relax its tight control on the tech sector raised sentiment for portfolio investments in China at the turn of the year, potentially translating into higher direct investments later in the year.

Top currency losers are Turkish Lira (-1.48%), New Zealand Dollar (-0.84%) and South Korean Won (-0.39%). Gains are led by British Pound (0.05%), Dollar Index (0.03%), Euro (0.03%) and Japanese Yen (0.03%).

Italy posted a trade surplus of €4.466 billion in February of 2025, narrowing from the €6.000 billion surplus in the corresponding period of the previous year amid a jump in annual import turnover. Imports rose by 4.1% annually to €49.325 billion, lifted by a 39.6% surge in foreign purchases of natural gas, amid some traction in Italian power demand while uncertain supply due to the halt of flows from Ukraine at the turn of the year raised prices. Foreign purchases also rose for food and beverages (8.2%), pharmaceutical articles (21%), and transportation goods. In turn, exports grew by a softer 0.8% annually to €53.791 billion, as increased sales of pharmaceutical goods (31.2%), transportation goods excluding autos (9.6%) and sporting goods (6.5%) offset declines in cars (-11.5%), machinery (-11.5%), and coke and refined petroleum chemicals (-25.8%).

Top commodity losers are Cheese (-6.43%). Gains are led by Orange Juice (0.80%).

Top commodity gainers are Titanium (2.06%). Biggest losers are Copper (-1.99%).

The Shanghai Composite shed 0.11% to close at 3,277 on Friday, snapping an eight-day winning streak as investors remained cautious amid ongoing uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations. Earlier this week, Beijing set conditions for entering new talks with the US, calling for greater respect, policy consistency, and a clearly designated US negotiator with full backing from President Trump. Meanwhile, Trump indicated a possible de-escalation of trade tensions with China, stating he does not want tariffs to rise further and may even consider reducing them at some point. China currently faces a hefty 145% tariff on its shipments, while retaliating with a 125% duty on US imports. Notable losses were seen from Yonghui (-4.7%), Cambricon (-1.1%), and Shanghai Belling (-5%). Despite Friday’s pullback, the Shanghai Composite gained 1.19% this week for its first weekly rise in five.

Producer prices in Moldova rose 4.7% year-on-year in March 2025, accelerating from a 3.4% increase in the previous month. This marks the highest annual growth in producer prices since October 2023, largely driven by a sharp rise in prices for electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply (25.1% vs. 9.8% in February). Prices also rose at a faster pace in manufacturing (2.3% vs. 1.9%), while costs slowed for mining and quarrying (11.2% vs. 12.3%). On a monthly basis, producer prices increased by 0.6%, easing from a 1.1% rise in February.

The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 1.03% to close at 34,730 while the broader Topix Index rallied 1.14% to 2,559 on Friday, extending gains from the previous session amid hopes that ongoing trade talks between the US and Japan will lead to tariff concessions. Earlier this week, Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa told reporters that Trump said getting a deal with Japan was a “top priority.” On the economic front, fresh data showed that Japan’s headline inflation eased to a four-month low of 3.6% in March, while core inflation accelerated as expected to 3.2%. Looking ahead, markets are focused on the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting next week. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.5% and may revise its growth outlook downward in light of potential tariff impacts. In corporate news, Chugai Pharmaceuticals surged 17.5% after the drug it developed with Eli Lilly for losing weight showed similar performance as Ozempic.

Indonesia and the U.S. have agreed to a 60-day deadline to conclude negotiations over a 32% tariff imposed on Indonesian imports to the U.S., according to a senior Indonesian minister. Key areas under discussion include investment, trade, critical minerals, and supply chain resilience. As part of the effort to ease U.S. tariff pressure, Indonesia said on Friday it would increase oil and gas imports from the U.S. and continue purchasing American agricultural products such as wheat, soybeans, and soybean milk. The minister emphasized that President Prabowo Subianto had sent a team to seek compromise on the tariff issue. The delegation has met with top U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Meantime, a meeting is scheduled next week with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani earlier said that US steel and medical equipment would be granted lower import duties of zero to 5%, down from 5 to 10%.

Japan does not engage in actions to deliberately weaken the yen, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato told parliament on Friday, pushing back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that Tokyo intentionally drives down its currency to support exporters. His comments come ahead of a possible meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington next week during the G20 finance summit and IMF spring meetings. If held, the talks would serve as the main forum for Japan and the U.S. to address currency issues amid broader tariff negotiations launched earlier this week. Kato pointed out that Japan’s most recent intervention in the currency market involved buying yen, not selling it, which reflects Tokyo’s commitment to fair market operations. While he acknowledged that the U.S. is keen to raise the topic of exchange rates, Kato declined to speculate on potential discussion points and noted that no date has been set yet for the meeting with Bessent.

Malaysian palm oil futures edged higher, hovering around MYR 4,015 per tonne and snapping a four-session losing run amid signs of solid demand. Cargo surveyor data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports rose between 13.6% and 17.0% month-on-month during the first half of April. Meantime, Malaysia’s overall export growth hit a three-month high in March, with palm oil shipments rising modestly year-on-year but easing from February. In the broader energy market, crude oil prices surged on fears of tighter global supply after the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports. In top buyer India, palm oil imports rose nearly 14% in March and are expected to climb further in the coming months amid falling inventories and the approaching holiday season. For the week, however, futures are on track to post a third straight weekly loss, down about 4.7%, weighed by concerns over the impact of U.S. trade policy. Market pressure is estimated to mount once the 90-day tariff pause ends.