EUR/USD: Will buyers retain control above 1.0400?
The recovery in the EUR/USD pair gained further traction in early Europe, driving the rate further into positive territory near the mid-point of 1.04 handle.Currently, EUR/USD advances +0.28% to fresh daily highs of 1.0442, extending the break above 1.04 barrier. The main currency pair is on a steady recovery journey from more-than a decade lows, and runs through fresh bids last minutes amid extended correction seen in the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies. The USD index broke below 103 handle to now trade at session lows of 102.94, extending the retreat from fourteen-year peaks reached at 103.57 in the US last session.Moreover, the bulls fight back control in early Europe, as focus shifts towards the economic releases due out from the Euroland, including the final CPI and trade balance data. While the US housing data may also provide some incentives on the spot.In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.0500 (round figure). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0530 (5-DMA) and from there to 1.0585 (10-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0400 (round number) below which 1.0366 (14-yr low) and 1.0300 (key support) could be tested.
GBP/USD extends recovery to 1.2450 region
After an initial dip closer to Thursday's three-week lows, the GBP/USD pair managed to recover early lost ground and is now building on to its recovery back above 1.2400 handle. Currently trading around 1.2440 region, testing session peak, a mild greenback retracement helped the pair to register a minor recovery on Friday following the post-Fed slump of nearly 350-pips in just 2-trading sessions. The pair still remains on track for its second consecutive week of declines. On Thursday, BoE decision to keep interest rates, and the size of its asset purchase program, unchanged failed to provide any respite for bulls. Moreover, solid US economic data - CPI, weekly jobless claims and regional manufacturing indices, added on to the hawkish Fed statement and provided an additional boost to the already stronger greenback, lifting the overall US Dollar Index to its highest levels in more than 13 years and dragging the GBP/USD pair to a three week low.In absence of any major market moving releases from UK, traders on Friday will take cues from US housing market data - building permits and housing starts, in order to grab some short-term trading opportunities. However, the near-term trend would remain dependent on the broader US Dollar price dynamics, which remains underpinned by expectations of faster Fed rate-tightening cycle in 2017.From technical perspective, the pair has decisively broken below a short-term ascending trend-channel and hence, any corrective bounce back above 1.2450 level might now confront strong resistance at the trend-channel support break-point, turned resistance, near 1.2500 psychological mark. On the downside, renewed weakness back below 50-day SMA support near 1.2400 region now seems to open room for continuation of the pair's near-term downward trajectory towards 1.2300 horizontal support.
USD/JPY consolidating post-Fed up-surge to multi-month highs
The USD/JPY pair was seen consolidating post-FOMC up-surge to fresh 10-month highs and was confined in a narrow trading range with mild negative bias around 118.00 handle. Bulls took a breather on Friday as market digested hawkish Fed statement that sparked a sharp greenback rally across the board, lifting the overall US Dollar Index to its highest levels in more than 13 years. Meanwhile, a mild retracement in Treasury bond yields also seem to be contributing towards a mild profit-taking dip from 10-1/2 month high level touched in the previous session. In fact, the 10-year US Treasury note yield has turned back below 2.6% after hitting the highest level since September 2014 on Thursday. A relatively lighter US economic docket, featuring building permits and housing starts, is unlikely to provide any fresh impetus and the pair might extend pre-weekend corrective pause. Nevertheless, the pair is sill headed for its sixth consecutive week of gains.On a sustained weakness below 118.00 handle, the corrective slide is likely to get extended towards 117.50 intermediate support en-route 117.00 round figure mark. On the upside, renewed strength above 118.50 level now seems to lift the pair beyond Thursday's multi-month high resistance near 118.65 level, towards testing 119.00 round figure mark.
USD/CHF corrects further to test daily pivot
The USD/CHF pair breaks lower in early Europe after a brief consolidation phase witnessed in early Asian trades, with markets closely tracking broad based USD correction.Currently, the USD/CHF pair extends its retreat below 1.03 handle, as the US dollar stalled its bullish run against its main competitors. The US dollar rallied to fresh fourteen-year highs after markets cheered Fed’s outright hawkishness as projected in its Dots chart plan.Markets looked past the SNB’s monetary policy decision and comments from SNB Chairman Jordan, as the major remained highly influenced by the Fed-driven USD moves. Nothing of note for the spot in the European session ahead, and hence, attention turns towards the US housing data due later in NA session.To the upside, the next resistance is located at 1.0331 (Nov 2015 high) and above which it could extend gains to 1.0344 (multi-year high) and 1.0400 (round figure) next. To the downside, immediate support might be located at 1.0277 (daily pivot) and below that 1.0254 (Feb 2016 high) and from there to 1.0200 (zero figure).
Iraq boosts oil sales to China Unipec before OPEC supply cuts kick-in RTRS
Reuters quotes people familiar with the matter, citing that Iraq boosts its crude oil exports to China, US and India to honor the contracts signed just before the OPEC and non-OPEC producers reached an oil output cut deal to prop up prices.Speaking on condition of anonymity to media, the people said Iraq's Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) has boosted Basra crude forward export sales to China’s Unipec, Iran’s biggest customer, by 3%to a total of 40 million-60 million barrels each quarter - 435,000-652,000 bpd - for 2017.SOMO will also supply Basra Heavy crude under new term contracts to Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corp and Indian refiner Essar Oil for 2017, according to a person close to the matter and a preliminary January loading schedule for the oil.
Gold halts post-Fed sell-off, stages a minor recovery
Having dropped to a fresh 10-month low in the previous session, Gold staged a minor recovery on Friday and is currently trading around $1133-34 region.A mild greenback pull-back is seen lending some support for the metal's recovery on the last trading day of the week. On Thursday, hawkish Fed statement continued boosting the greenback, pushing the overall US Dollar Index to its highest levels in more than 13 years, and weighed heavily on dollar-denominated commodities - like gold. Moreover, the policymakers now projected three rate-hikes in 2017, from two-hikes forecasted previously in September, which further dented demand for non-yielding precious metal. Adding to this, record surge in US equity markets did little to lend support to traditional safe-haven assets and dragged the yellow metal to its lowest level since early Feb. Moving ahead, growing expectations of stronger US economic growth, led by President-elect Donald Trump's proposed aggressive fiscal policies, might continue fueling speculations of faster pace of Fed rate-hike action and underpin the greenback, eventually restricting any swift recovery for the yellow metal.From current levels, $1138-40 zone is likely to act as immediate hurdle, above which the metal seems to witness a short-covering bounce initially towards $1150 intermediate resistance en-route $1158-60 strong horizontal resistance. On the downside, renewed weakness back below $1130, leading to a subsequent break below Thursday's multi-month lows support near $1122 level, is likely to accelerate the slide immediately towards $1110 before the commodity eventually drops to test $1100 psychological mark.
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