EUR/USD sticks to the rangebound theme - UOB
EUR/USD remains poised to extend its current consolidative pattern for the next 1-3 weeks, suggested analysts at UOB Group.?The sudden expansion in trading range was unexpected as EUR dropped to a low of 1.1149 before rocketing to a high of 1.1238. While the rapid recovery has resulted in a positive undertone, any further EUR strength is unlikely to have enough momentum to move convincingly above last week?s peak at 1.1275/80 (1.1255 is already a strong intervening resistance)?.?Despite the sudden burst in volatility, EUR closed largely unchanged yesterday. The neutral phase that started about 2 weeks ago is still intact and only a clear break out of the expected 1.1120/1.1290 sideway consolidation range would indicate the start of a sustained directional move?.?Interestingly, the 207 pips range for September (between 1.1119 and 1.1326) is the second narrowest monthly range on record (record was in June 2014 with a range of 194 pips). According to a Bloomberg report, the 3Q quarterly range is the narrowest on record?.

GBP/USD could head towards 1.22/1.2190 - Commerzbank
According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, Cable?s downside could extend to the 1.22/1.2190 area.?GBP/USD completed its symmetrical triangle at 1.2929 and has eroded the 1.2797/50 July low and the long term Fibonacci support (78.6% retracement of the move from 1985 to 2007). The close below here is regarded as very negative and targets circa 1.22/1.2190 (this is the approximate measurement down from the symmetrical triangle pattern)?.?We have a near term resistance line at 1.2980 (nearby high is 1.3056) and will consider that the market remains directly offered below here. We view the September high at 1.3443 as an interim high. Only if it and the late June high at 1.3534 were to be overcome would we neutralize our medium term negative outlook?.

USD/CAD clings to gains near 1.3200, ADP eyed
The greenback is extending its upbeat momentum vs. its Canadian neighbour on Wednesday, with USD/CAD up smalls and around the 1.3200 handle.Spot has now faded part of Tuesday?s strong advance to daily tops in the vicinity of the key 200-day sma near 1.3220, although it so far manages to remain close to the 1.3200 handle early in the European morning.The recovery in crude oil prices was reinforced by an unexpected draw in US crude stockpiles of 7.6 million barrels according to yesterday?s report by API, pushing the barrel of West Texas Intermediate above the $49.00 mark and lending support to CAD.Later in the session, US ADP report is expected to show the private sector has added 166K jobs during September, along with trade balance figures, Factory Orders and the ISM Non-manufacturing.Ahead in the week, the pair will remain under scrutiny in light of Wednesday?s report by the EIA and Friday?s labour market figures in Canada along with US Non-farm Payrolls. In addition, Senior Deputy Governor C.Wilkins is due to speak on Wednesday and Friday while the BoC will publish its Business Outlook Survey on Friday.In the meantime, crude oil dynamics remain the almost exclusive driver of CAD, taking the US-CA 2y spread differential to the passenger?s seat, while speculators have re-positioned on the short side of CAD during the week ended on September 27.As of writing the pair is up 0.03% at 1.3195 facing the next resistance at 1.3276 (high Sep.27) ahead of 1.3311 (38.2% Fibo of the 2016 drop) and finally 1.3575 (50% Fibo of the 2016 drop). On the other hand, a breach of 1.3137 (20-day sma) would open the door to 1.2996 (low Sep.22) and then 1.2818 (low Sep.7).

USD/JPY turns neutral, eyeing to reclaim 103.00 handle
After an initial dip to 102.67 level, the USD/JPY pair recovered its lost ground and has now turned neutral to move within striking distance of 103.00 handle. The pair built on to its overnight strong gains above 50-day SMA and extended its recovery trend from the vicinity of 100.00 psychological mark touched in the previous week. In absence of any economic releases, the ongoing strong up-move could be attributed to the prevalent risk-on market sentiment and is reaffirmed by a sharp slide in gold, which dropped to the lowest level since the historic Brexit referendum.Moving ahead, investors on Wednesday will focus on US economic releases, which if adds to the recent upbeat data would revive hopes of an eventual Fed rate-hike action and boost the greenback further from current levels. Today's US economic docket features the release of ADP report, trade balance data, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and factory orders.From current levels 103.00 round figure mark is likely to act as immediate resistance above which the pair is likely to dart towards 103.35 (Sept. 14 high) and further towards 100-day SMA resistance near 103.75 region.On the downside, weakness below session low support near 102.67 could get extended towards 102.50 level. Dips below 102.50 support are likely to get bought into near 102.25 intermediate support and hence, is likely to limit any further downside near 102.00 round figure mark.

USD/CHF capped below 0.9800 amid subdued USD
The USD/CHF pair extends its retreat from five-week highs in early Europe, in wake of fresh selling in the US dollar on profit-taking ahead of the US jobs data due later today.Currently, the USD/CHF pair trades -0.13% lower at 0.9778, reverting towards daily lows struck at 0.9772 in early Asia. Having failed to resist above 0.98 handle once again, the major slips back into the red zone, with markets largely tracking broad US dollar correction after the recent strength.While the safe-haven Swiss franc gains as risk conditions appear to have soured, with the Euro Stoxx futures down -0.60% in early trading, which point to a negative open to the European markets.Nothing of note for the major in the European session, and hence, the spot will remain at the mercy of the USD dynamics ahead of the ADP jobs report due later in the NA session.To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.9820/29 (Aug 20 high/ 5-week high) and above which it could extend gains to 0.9850 (psychological levels) and 0.9889 (Sept 1 high) next. To the downside, immediate support might be located at 0.9760 (200-DMA) and below that 0.9738 (20-DMA) and from there to 0.9700 (round figure).

Oil bounces 1% on US crude stocks draw, EIA data eyed
Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic broke higher on Wednesday, following a brief consolidative phase seen yesterday.Currently, both crude benchmarks bounce-back, with Brent up +0.85% at $ 51.30, while WTI rises +1% to $ 49.15. Oil extends its bullish momentum into a sixth-day today, with the latest leg higher driven by a shockingly high crude stocks draw, as reflected by the API report. The API report showed that the US crude inventories dropped by 7.6 million barrels last week, against predictions of increase by 1.5 barrels, marking five straight weekly draws.However, further gains remain capped on reports that the OPEC crude output rose to a record high last month, driven by returning output from Libya and Nigeria, according to a Bloomberg survey.Later today, the official US government crude inventory report will be published by the EIA, which will have a strong bearing on the oil markets.

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