EUR/USD: Supply capping minor-recovery near 5-DMA
The EUR/USD pair once again found support near 20-DMA and re-attempted gains, in a bid to take-out Wednesday?s high reached at 1.1238, although the recovery fizzled amid higher European equities.EUR/USD back near 20-DMA at 1.1217.Currently, EUR/USD trades modestly flat at 1.1218, flirting with session lows reached at 1.12 striving hard to regain 5-DMA barrier located at 1.1230. The main currency once remains largely subdued amid a risk-friendly environment, as the European stocks join the global rally triggered by the OPEC output deal announcement.Moreover, latest headlines crossing the wires indicate trouble brewing in the German lender Commerzbank, which comes a couple of days after the Deutsche bank debacle, also keep a check on the EUR.Meanwhile, stalled recovery in the US dollar versus its major peers, after the bulls ran into 95.50 resistance, keeps the sentiment around EUR/USD somewhat buoyant. Also, slightly downbeat German employment data also acts as a drag on the EUR/USD pair.Looking ahead, markets await a slew of economic releases from the Euroland, although the main focus remains on the German CPI figures ahead of US GDP data and Fed speaks due later in the day.In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.1262 (Sept 28 high). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.1286 (Sept 15 high) and from there to 1.1300 (round figure). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.1202 (hourly 200-SMA) below which 1.1145 (static support) and 1.1119 (Sept 21 low) could be tested.

GBP/JPY clings to gains above 132.00 handle
The GBP/JPY cross extended its recovery momentum for the third consecutive session and is now building on to its gains above 132.00 handle. Currently trading at 6-day high around 132.25-30 band, an offered tone around the Japanese Yen, on the back of OPEC deal-led optimism, has been the sole driver of the pair's up-move on Thursday. In a meeting in Algeria, major oil producers reached to an agreement to cap output in order to lift oil prices. The decision boosted investor risk appetite and dented the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen, assisting the pair to build on to its recovery momentum from a multi-week low of 129.63 touched during early part of the week.In absence of any major economic releases from UK, the prevalent risk sentiment would determine the safe-haven demand of the Japanese Yen and provide impetus for the next leg of move for the cross.From current levels, 132.75-80 area is likely to act as immediate resistance above which the pair is likely to aim towards testing an important confluence resistance near 133.90-134.00 region with 133.50 level acting as intermediate resistance. Meanwhile on the downside, 132.00 handle now turns immediate support. Weakness below 132.00 mark seems to be short-lived and is likely to be bought into near 131.80-75 support, which if broken could accelerate the slide back towards 131.00-130.90 support area.

AUD/JPY fails once again near 78.20 post-BOJ Kuroda
The cross in the AUD/JPY finally broke a brief phase of consolidation to the downside, as comments from the BOJ Governor Kuroda recued the JPY bulls somewhat.The AUD/JPY pair, currently, trades +0.58% higher at 77.88, having posted fresh session lows at 77.80. The cross in the AUD/JPY is seen receding a part of today?s gains as the yen recovers some ground amid BOJ Kuroda?s comments, highlighting the central bank?s commitment to reach 2% price target.While reports that India confirmed it has carried out surgical strikes on Pakistan launch pads, also spooked markets and boosted demand for the safe-haven yen. Moreover, a retreat in the AUD/USD pair from three-week tops above 0.77 handle, further added to renewed weakness in AUD/JPY.All eyes now remain on the US economic releases and Fed speaks due later on the day, while the Japanese CPI data due tomorrow will be also closely eyed for further momentum on the cross.To the upside, the next resistance is located at 78.20 (key daily resistance) and above which it could extend gains to at 78.50 (psychological levels).To the downside immediate support might be located 77.68 (100-DMA) below that at 76.28/16 (50 & 5-DMA).

Japan banking system stable, but negative rates will increase higher risk assets
The US ratings agency, Moody?s Investors Service, published its latest report on the Japanese banking sector, underscoring risks in wake of BOJ?s negative interest rates policy.?The outlook for Japan's banking system over the next 12-18 months is stable, reflecting Moody's expectation that the banks' operating environment, asset risk and liquidity will remain stable, outweighing pressure on domestic profitability from the Bank of Japan's negative interest rate policy (NIRP).??The NIRP has pushed yields on most low risk assets including Japanese government bonds of most tenors to near-zero or negative. This situation will encourage the banks to realize capital gains on bond holdings, and invest in higher risk domestic and particularly for the three megabanks overseas loan assets.??The banks will see higher risk-weighted asset (RWA) growth becoming a key source of capital consumption in the coming years, although most banks can offset this pressure by selling equity holdings, which would lower RWA and reduce capital volatility.?

Gold erases tepid recovery gains as USD strengthens
Gold erased early recovery gains and turned lower to hit a fresh session low level of $1320 amid a tepid recovery in the greenback. A stronger greenback tends to dent dollar-linked commodities - like gold, and has been the sole factor responsible for the yellow metal's reversal from session peak. Currently trading near Wednesday's closing level at around $1322, the precious metal on Thursday got an initial boost from weaker greenback, which saw some selling pressure on improving investor risk appetite led by late Wednesday OPEC deal to cap oil output. The optimism, however, seems to have cooled off a bit, with the overall US Dollar Index reversing early losses and is now weighing on commodities pegged with USD.Looking forward, today's release of the final print of US GDP growth for second quarter of 2016 will now be looked up0n for fresh impetus.On a sustained weakness below session low support near $1320, the metal seems to aim back towards testing 100-day SMA support near $1310 region. On the upside, recovery momentum above session high resistance near $1326 level now seems to be capped at 50-day SMA support break turned strong resistance.

OPEC surprised the market - Rabobank
Bas van Geffen, Quantitative Analyst at Rabobank, notes that the crude oil posted its sharpest rise since April, after the OPEC surprised the market with an agreement to reduce the bloc?s combined output to 32.5mn barrels per day, a reduction of about 750,000 barrels per day.?This is the third time in a row that a meeting in Algeria catches the market off guard with a production cut. While the details i.e. the individual countries? production targets still need to be hammered out in the November OPEC meeting, this agreement marks a break from the current policy in which each member produces at will.The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries thereby succeeded to agree on a common strategy against low prices where global central banks and governments so far fail to coordinate a common response against the low growth, low inflation, and hence low interest rates environment. And so, while the FX wars rage on, the oil shake-out may have come to an end.Sources also said that in addition, OPEC would try to involve non-OPEC oil producers in this newly agreed cooperation. Of course, it remains to be seen whether non-OPEC members would be willing to cooperate. In fact, with individual production targets not fully agreed on, there is still a small risk that some OPEC members may not agree. However, given the impact of the current low prices on the countries? budgets, the OPEC members likely see this agreement as favourable for everyone.The news of this OPEC agreement reverberated across other asset classes as well, with currencies of oil producing countries, such as Canada, strengthening. And, unsurprisingly, the energy sector posted the biggest gains in the equities universe, with the S&P energy index up 4.3%.?

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