EUR/USD could still test 1.1366 - Commerzbank
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank suggested there is still room for the pair to test the 1.1360 area.?EUR/USD remains bid in its range and is poised to reach the 4 month resistance line at 1.1287. This is reinforced by 1.1366 the August high. Only an unexpected rise above here would introduce scope to 1.1416/65, the mid-April and June highs?.?In order to alleviate immediate upside pressure the market will need to move back below the 1.1190 area, this guards the 1.1123 31st August low. We favour failure here but are unable to rule out a push into the 1.1366 area?.?Below 1.1123, the seven month support line at 1.0992 will be targeted next, together with the June and July lows at 1.0952/12?.

Eurozone loan growth stagnates in August - ING
Bert Colijn, Senior Economist at ING, notes that the Eurozone?s pace of lending to households and non-financial businesses has stagnated in August, indicating that the recovery of loan growth is continuing at a snail?s pace. ?Loans adjusted for loan sales and securitization to households grew by 1.8% YoY and by 1.9% to non-financial corporations. This indicates that uncertainty has caused businesses and consumers to be a little more risk averse in August, putting a dent in the recovery of loan growth and putting pressure on GDP growth in the third quarter. While loans to the private sector disappointed in August, the broad monetary aggregate, M3, did grow faster in in August, by 5.1% YoY up from 4.9% in July and growth in M1 also accelerated. While this is in normal times a good leading indicator, the success of M1 at predicting growth falls and stands with the current large ECB stimulus program.With rates being pushed down by the ECB?s QE policy, attractiveness of borrowing has been pushed significantly. The growth in Eurozone borrowing remains rather weak though, showing only limited impact of the program thus far. Nevertheless, credit growth for consumption accelerated slightly in August, suggesting some upside for consumer spending in Q3. The stable growth in loans to businesses could indicate that the investment climate in the Eurozone has not faltered under the pressure of this summer?s political risks so far. This supports the view that GDP growth is likely sustained at a relatively moderate pace of 0.2-0.3% QoQ.?

GBP/USD fades a spike above 1.30, back to square one
A renewed buying interest seen behind the GBP/USD pair remained short-lived, now sending the rate back below 5-DMA located at 1.2995.Currently, GBP/USD trades modestly flat at 1.2970, retreating sharply from fresh session highs reached at 1.3009 in the last hour. The cable pares back a 40-pips rally triggered by a stronger opening on the European indices, which suggested the risk-on was back into the markets as dust settled over the Deutsche Bank aftermath.The GBP/USD pair fell back into negative territory on the back of fresh selling in oil prices, as markets digest latest headlines crossing the wires from the oil ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC nations. Iranian oil minister squashed hopes of an oil output agreement to be reached this week in Algeria.Further, the greenback caught a sudden bid-wave against is major peers over the last, which also collaborated to the downside in the major. Attention now turns towards the US consumer confidence data and Fed speak due later in the NA session for further momentum. The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.2995 (5-DMA), above which 1.3033 (daily R2) and 1.3090 (Sep 23 low) would be tested. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.2943 (Sept 21 low) below that at 1.2900 (key support) and at 1.2872/63 (Aug 16 & 15 low).

USD/CHF recovers to turn positive at 0.9700 mark
The USD/CHF pair once again has managed to hold and rebound from 0.9660 support area and has now moved back into positive territory, albeit trading with only minor gains around 0.9700 handle.The pair is benefitting from investors' move away from traditional safe-haven assets - like the Swiss Franc, after Hillary Clinton's win at the first US presidential debate against her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, which led to a fresh wave of risk-on trade in global financial markets.Next in focus would be the release of CB Consumer Confidence index from the US later during NA trading session, which might provide the required momentum and assist the pair to build on to its move above 0.9700 handle. On a sustained move above 0.9700 handle, the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt to test 50-day SMA resistance near 0.9745, which is closely followed by 100-day SMA resistance near 0.9755-60 region. A sustained move back above 100-day SMA would negate any near-term bearish bias and assist the pair to head back towards testing the very important 200-day SMA resistance near 0.9800 handle.Meanwhile on the downside, 0.9660 level now becomes immediate strong support to defend, which if broken decisively seems to drag the pair immediately towards 0.9615 horizontal support before breaking through 0.9600 handle and heading towards its next major support near 0.9540 level.

USD/JPY trims early recovery gains
Having posted a session high near 101.00 handle, the USD/JPY pair lost its upside momentum and has now trimmed some of its recovery gains.Currently trading near 100.60 level, the pair met with fresh supply as market seems to have digested US presidential debate-led wave of optimism. Concerns over Deutsche Bank was seen weighing on European equity markets, which have now started retracing from higher level and could be the first signs of risk-aversion making a comeback. Focus now shifts to the release of CB US Consumer Confidence index, later during NA trading session, and would be looked upon to grab some short-term trading opportunities.Immediate downside support is seen at 100.30-25 area below which the pair seems vulnerable to head back towards 100.00 psychological mark support. A convincing break below 100.00 mark might trigger stops and is likely to accelerate the slide further towards 99.60-55 support area. On the upside, 101.00 handle now seems to have emerged as immediate resistance, which if conquered should boost the pair beyond 101.30 intermediate resistance towards testing its next major hurdle near 101.65-70 region.

BOJ shift for prolonged inflation fight and JPY - Nomura
Research Team at Nomura, suggests that the BOJ?s new policy framework aims to improve the sustainability of its easing, as the Bank acknowledges the battle to reach the price target may be more prolonged.?The transformation was inevitable sooner rather than later, and the BOJ made the initial step relatively smoothly, avoiding volatility in bond and equity markets. At the same time, the decision does not necessarily add much fresh stimulus to the economy, and we judge this preparation for a prolonged fight means less frequent policy reactions going forward. Thus, we expect the immediate impact on JPY to be limited.Nonetheless, the improved sustainability under the new policy framework will enable JPY weakness in the medium term, as 1) it avoids the danger of deterioration in risk sentiment by sudden tapering, 2) the policy rate cut will be less harmful for the financial sector, and 3) expectations for joint efforts by the BOJ and the government will continue.As a result, when positive external developments, such as US rate hikes and a reduction in US political uncertainty, occur, Japanese investment in foreign assets with no FX hedging could accelerate more easily. Carry trade-type JPY selling should also become gradually easier. The BOJ?s commitment to maintaining stability in the JGB market will be the key to success.?

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